Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 3 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 5 | Generated at: 6月22日 04:45

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1927.2°C -> 27°C27°C27°CCsettlement-standard exact-number34.64%n=866AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 04:406月22日 04:456月22日 04:40
Madrid / LEMDCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1839.3°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number32.58%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 02:406月22日 02:456月22日 02:40
Austin / KAUSCore tier-12026-06-212026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1789.06°F -> 89°F89°F88–89°FFstandardized range-bin26.66%n=979STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 08:406月21日 08:456月21日 08:40
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1738.4°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.59%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 01:406月22日 01:456月22日 01:40
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-212026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1983.12°F -> 83°F83°F82–83°FFstandardized range-bin27.07%n=979STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 09:406月21日 09:456月21日 09:40

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-222026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1738.7°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 22:106月21日 22:156月21日 22:10
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-212026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1789.78°F -> 90°F90°F90–91°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%n=381STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 09:406月21日 09:456月21日 09:40
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-212026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1724.7°C -> 25°C25°C25°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%n=381STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 09:406月21日 09:456月21日 09:40

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedStatus
London / EGLC2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1927.2°C27°C27°C6月22日 04:40AFTER_CUTOFF
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1839.3°C39°C39°C6月22日 02:40AFTER_CUTOFF
Paris / LFPB2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1738.4°C38°C38°C6月22日 01:40AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are current forecast_date rows before their cutoff.

Stale previous rows

Stale rows are previous forecast_date rows kept visible for reference until the next refresh. They are not hidden, but they are not treated as current.

City / stationForecast dateOutcomeLast updatedNext expected refresh / visible byStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-2188–89°F6月21日 08:40next visible 6月22日 08:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Denver / KBKF2026-06-2190–91°F6月21日 09:40next visible 6月22日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-2239°C6月21日 22:10next visible 6月22日 22:15STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-2125°C6月21日 09:40next visible 6月22日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
NYC / KLGA2026-06-2182–83°F6月21日 09:40next visible 6月22日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-22T04:45:34+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-21 to 2026-06-22
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
  • caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
  • caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
  • caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.