Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateConservative pHistorical sample nCutoff statusMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1977.18°F -> 77°F77°F76–77°FFrange-binrange-bin 30.24%range-bin 27.69%n=506AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 09:406月19日 09:456月19日 09:40
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1737.2°C -> 37°C37°C37°CCexact + bucketexact 41.23%; bucket 43.44%exact 33.49%; bucket 35.82%exact n=114; bucket n=122AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 01:406月19日 01:456月19日 01:57
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1930.5°C -> 31°C31°C31°CCexact + bucketexact 40.00%; bucket 40.20%exact 33.30%; bucket 33.84%exact n=170; bucket n=199AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 04:406月19日 04:456月19日 04:40

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateConservative pHistorical sample nCutoff statusMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1738.6°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCbucket62.14%bucket 45.06%n=103AFTER_CUTOFF6月18日 22:106月18日 22:156月19日 00:19
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1788.16°F -> 88°F88°F88–89°FFrange-binrange-bin 60.00%range-bin 51.08%n=85AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 09:406月19日 09:456月19日 09:40
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1722.3°C -> 22°C22°C22°CCbucket59.74%bucket 38.37%n=77AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 09:406月19日 09:456月19日 09:40
Austin / KAUSNew watchlist2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1791.40°F -> 91°F91°F90–91°FFrange-binrange-bin 51.81%range-bin 42.87%n=83AFTER_CUTOFF6月19日 08:406月19日 08:456月19日 08:40

Ready rows

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdated
Austin / KAUS2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1791.40°F91°F90–91°F6月19日 08:40
Denver / KBKF2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1788.16°F88°F88–89°F6月19日 09:40
London / EGLC2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1930.5°C31°C31°C6月19日 04:40
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1738.6°C39°C39°C6月19日 00:19
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1722.3°C22°C22°C6月19日 09:40
NYC / KLGA2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1977.18°F77°F76–77°F6月19日 09:40
Paris / LFPB2026-06-19MAX_THROUGH_1737.2°C37°C37°C6月19日 01:57

Not yet cutoff-confirmed

Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-19T13:37:40+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-19 to 2026-06-19
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Conservative p is a heuristic lower-bound estimate from the probability haircut audit. It is not a true probability guarantee and is not a trading recommendation. Raw historical hit rates and conservative probabilities are math references only, before fees, slippage, liquidity, and execution risk.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses 2°F Polymarket range-bin outcomes. Its historical hit rate and Conservative p are computed against the actual range bin containing the rounded whole-degree forecast, not against a standalone exact 77°F market.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC active market outcomes are exact whole-degree labels. Its displayed historical metrics use exact-number / rounded-bucket validation, not range-bin validation.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses Polymarket range-bin outcomes. Its historical hit rate and Conservative p are computed against the actual range bin containing the rounded whole-degree forecast.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses Polymarket range-bin outcomes. Its historical hit rate and Conservative p are computed against the actual range bin containing the rounded whole-degree forecast.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.