Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 4 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 4 | Generated at: 6月23日 13:07

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1936.8°C -> 37°C37°C37°CCsettlement-standard exact-number34.64%n=866BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 04:406月24日 04:456月23日 09:45
Madrid / LEMDCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1838.1°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number32.58%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 02:406月24日 02:456月23日 09:45
Austin / KAUSCore tier-12026-06-232026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1792.12°F -> 92°F92°F92°FFstandardized range-bin26.66%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 08:406月23日 08:456月23日 09:46
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C -> 40°C40°C40°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.59%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 01:406月24日 01:456月23日 09:45
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-232026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1977.54°F -> 78°F78°F78–79°FFstandardized range-bin27.07%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 09:406月23日 09:456月23日 09:46

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%n=384BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 22:106月23日 22:156月23日 09:47
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-232026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1786.18°F -> 86°F86°F86°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%n=381AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 09:406月23日 09:456月23日 09:46
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-232026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1724.9°C -> 25°C25°C25°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%n=381AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 09:406月23日 09:456月23日 09:46

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1792.12°F92°F92°F6月23日 09:46AFTER_CUTOFF
Denver / KBKF2026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1786.18°F86°F86°F6月23日 09:46AFTER_CUTOFF
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1724.9°C25°C25°C6月23日 09:46AFTER_CUTOFF
NYC / KLGA2026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1977.54°F78°F78–79°F6月23日 09:46AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are reserved for future display states not covered by current ready or stale/reference rows.

Stale previous rows

Stale/reference rows are current latest forecast rows shown before their cutoff. Forecast date means the target date whose maximum temperature this row forecasts. They are not treated as current ready rows.

City / stationForecast dateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeLast refreshedCutoffVisible byStatus
London / EGLC2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1936.8°C37°C37°C6月23日 09:456月24日 04:406月24日 04:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C38°C38°C6月23日 09:476月23日 22:106月23日 22:15BEFORE_CUTOFF
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1838.1°C38°C38°C6月23日 09:456月24日 02:406月24日 02:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Paris / LFPB2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C40°C40°C6月23日 09:456月24日 01:406月24日 01:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-23T13:07:27+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-24
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
  • caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
  • caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
  • caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
Offline research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Offline research closeout. Not live. This does not update live probabilities or forecasts and is not a trading signal.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

City-level summary

CityComplete datesAsk-rankableForecast exactResonance exactNotes
Austin847241 / 70 = 58.57%39 / 55 = 70.91%Available 84d, not full 100d
London1006928 / 67 = 41.79%25 / 55 = 45.45%—
NYC1006824 / 66 = 36.36%20 / 44 = 45.45%—
Paris1006630 / 66 = 45.45%27 / 56 = 48.21%—

Madrid appendix

  • Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
  • Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
  • Complete dates: 89
  • Ask-only rankable: 86
  • Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
  • Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
  • Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

  • Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
  • Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
  • Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
  • This is offline research only.
  • This does not update live probabilities or forecasts.
  • This is not a trading signal.