Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 0 | Waiting for cutoff: 1 | Stale previous rows: 7 | Generated at: 6月20日 17:44

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateConservative pHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1926.3°C -> 26°C26°C26°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.17%25.21%n=382STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 04:406月20日 04:456月20日 04:40
Madrid / LEMDCore tier-12026-06-212026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1838.9°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number36.46%24.53%n=384BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 02:406月21日 02:456月20日 17:28
Austin / KAUSCore tier-12026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1789.42°F -> 89°F89°F88–89°FFstandardized range-bin29.17%26.29%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 08:406月20日 08:456月20日 08:40
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1734.3°C -> 34°C34°C34°CCsettlement-standard exact-number38.80%20.80%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 01:406月20日 01:456月20日 01:40
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1984.02°F -> 84°F84°F84–85°FFstandardized range-bin26.82%24.03%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 09:406月20日 09:456月20日 09:40

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateConservative pHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1739.2°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%11.78%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月19日 22:106月19日 22:156月19日 22:10
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1794.10°F -> 94°F94°F94–95°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%23.21%n=381STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 09:406月20日 09:456月20日 09:40
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-202026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1723.7°C -> 24°C24°C24°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%12.24%n=381STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月20日 09:406月20日 09:456月20日 09:40

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are current forecast_date rows before their cutoff.

City / stationForecast dateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedVisible byStatus
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-21MAX_THROUGH_1838.9°C39°C39°C6月20日 17:286月21日 02:45BEFORE_CUTOFF

Stale previous rows

Stale rows are previous forecast_date rows kept visible for reference until the next refresh. They are not hidden, but they are not treated as current.

City / stationForecast dateOutcomeLast updatedNext expected refresh / visible byStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-2088–89°F6月20日 08:40next visible 6月21日 08:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Denver / KBKF2026-06-2094–95°F6月20日 09:40next visible 6月21日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
London / EGLC2026-06-2026°C6月20日 04:40next visible 6月21日 04:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-2039°C6月19日 22:10next visible 6月20日 22:15STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-2024°C6月20日 09:40next visible 6月21日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
NYC / KLGA2026-06-2084–85°F6月20日 09:40next visible 6月21日 09:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Paris / LFPB2026-06-2034°C6月20日 01:40next visible 6月21日 01:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-20T17:44:07+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-20 to 2026-06-21
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate and Conservative p are long-sample settlement-standard backtest references. Exact-number cities compare rounded forecast integers against settlement-standard observed integer temperatures. Range-bin cities use standardized even-lower/odd-upper 2°F bins and ignore open-ended market tails. These values are research/display references only, not trading advice, not guaranteed lower bounds, not calibrated confidence intervals, and not forecasts of future accuracy.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate and Conservative p values are sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for displayed Historical hit rate and Conservative p; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for displayed Historical hit rate and Conservative p; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for displayed Historical hit rate and Conservative p; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
  • caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for Historical hit rate and Conservative p. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
  • caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
  • caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate and Conservative p are computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.