Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 2 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 6 | Generated at: 6月24日 01:48

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C -> 40°C40°C40°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.59%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 01:406月24日 01:456月24日 01:45
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1984.02°F -> 84°F84°F84–85°FFstandardized range-bin27.07%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月24日 01:47

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%n=384AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 22:106月23日 22:156月24日 01:47
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1784.74°F -> 85°F85°F85°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%n=381BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月24日 01:46
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1721.8°C -> 22°C22°C22°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%n=381BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月24日 01:46

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedStatus
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C38°C38°C6月24日 01:47AFTER_CUTOFF
Paris / LFPB2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C40°C40°C6月24日 01:45AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are reserved for future display states not covered by current ready or stale/reference rows.

Stale previous rows

Stale/reference rows are current latest forecast rows shown before their cutoff. Forecast date means the target date whose maximum temperature this row forecasts. They are not treated as current ready rows.

City / stationForecast dateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeLast refreshedCutoffVisible byStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1793.56°F94°F94°F6月24日 01:466月24日 08:406月24日 08:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Denver / KBKF2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1784.74°F85°F85°F6月24日 01:466月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
London / EGLC2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1936.8°C37°C37°C6月24日 01:466月24日 04:406月24日 04:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1838.1°C38°C38°C6月24日 01:456月24日 02:406月24日 02:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1721.8°C22°C22°C6月24日 01:466月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
NYC / KLGA2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1984.02°F84°F84–85°F6月24日 01:476月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-24T01:48:39+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-24 to 2026-06-25
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
  • caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
  • caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
  • caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
Offline research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Offline research closeout. Not live. This does not update live probabilities or forecasts and is not a trading signal.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

City-level summary

CityComplete datesAsk-rankableForecast exactResonance exactNotes
Austin847241 / 70 = 58.57%39 / 55 = 70.91%Available 84d, not full 100d
London1006928 / 67 = 41.79%25 / 55 = 45.45%—
NYC1006824 / 66 = 36.36%20 / 44 = 45.45%—
Paris1006630 / 66 = 45.45%27 / 56 = 48.21%—

Madrid appendix

  • Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
  • Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
  • Complete dates: 89
  • Ask-only rankable: 86
  • Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
  • Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
  • Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

  • Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
  • Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
  • Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
  • This is offline research only.
  • This does not update live probabilities or forecasts.
  • This is not a trading signal.
Historical descriptive sample · display only

Latest research conclusion: Paris & New York

The latest D-1 Telonex reconstruction fixed the same-day partition problem and expanded the historical sample. New York reached 245 rankable historical days; Paris reached 117 rankable historical days and remains source-limited.

Paris — Top1 (strongest signal in this study)

Hit rate 62.86% · n=35 · EV ≈ +0.1060 per 1-share contract

  • wins 22 / losses 13
  • avg win ask 0.5563 · avg loss ask 0.4654
  • EV ≈ +0.2551 per $1 staked

Paris — forecast within market top two

Hit rate 48.21% · n=56 · EV ≈ +0.0340 per 1-share contract

  • wins 27 / losses 29
  • avg win ask 0.5151 · avg loss ask 0.3858
  • EV ≈ +0.0544 per $1 staked

New York — forecast within market top two

Hit rate 41.67% · n=48 · EV ≈ +0.0541 per 1-share contract

  • wins 20 / losses 28
  • avg win ask 0.4465 · avg loss ask 0.3027
  • EV ≈ +0.0610 per $1 staked

New York — Top1 (not attractive in this sample)

Hit rate 43.48% · n=23 · EV ≈ -0.0273 per 1-share contract

  • wins 10 / losses 13
  • avg win ask 0.5729 · avg loss ask 0.3768
  • EV ≈ -0.1629 per $1 staked

“Forecast within market top two” means the forecast outcome was among the market’s two cheapest (most likely) ask prices — not strictly second place.

These are historical descriptive sample results only. They are not forward-looking predictions and should not be treated as trading advice.