Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1

Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 4 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 4 | Generated at: 6月22日 13:20

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1927.2°C -> 27°C27°C27°CCsettlement-standard exact-number34.64%n=866STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 04:406月22日 04:456月22日 04:40
Madrid / LEMDCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1839.3°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number32.58%n=979STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 02:406月22日 02:456月22日 02:40
Austin / KAUSCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1792.66°F -> 93°F93°F92–93°FFstandardized range-bin26.66%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 08:406月22日 08:456月22日 08:40
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-222026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1738.4°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.59%n=979STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 01:406月22日 01:456月22日 01:40
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1978.62°F -> 79°F79°F78–79°FFstandardized range-bin27.07%n=979AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 09:406月22日 09:456月22日 09:40

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-222026-06-23MAX_THROUGH_1738.7°C -> 39°C39°C39°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%n=384STALE_FORECAST_DATESTALE_FORECAST_DATE6月21日 22:106月21日 22:156月21日 22:10
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1789.60°F -> 90°F90°F90–91°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%n=381AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 09:406月22日 09:456月22日 09:40
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-222026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1725.7°C -> 26°C26°C26°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%n=381AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月22日 09:406月22日 09:456月22日 09:40

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1792.66°F93°F92–93°F6月22日 08:40AFTER_CUTOFF
Denver / KBKF2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1789.60°F90°F90–91°F6月22日 09:40AFTER_CUTOFF
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1725.7°C26°C26°C6月22日 09:40AFTER_CUTOFF
NYC / KLGA2026-06-22MAX_THROUGH_1978.62°F79°F78–79°F6月22日 09:40AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are current forecast_date rows before their cutoff.

Stale previous rows

Stale rows are previous forecast_date rows kept visible for reference until the next refresh. They are not hidden, but they are not treated as current.

City / stationForecast dateOutcomeLast updatedNext expected refresh / visible byStatus
London / EGLC2026-06-2227°C6月22日 04:40next visible 6月23日 04:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-2239°C6月21日 22:10next visible 6月22日 22:15STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-2239°C6月22日 02:40next visible 6月23日 02:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Paris / LFPB2026-06-2238°C6月22日 01:40next visible 6月23日 01:45STALE_FORECAST_DATE
Metadata and caveats
  • generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-22T13:20:21+10:00
  • forecast_date range: 2026-06-21 to 2026-06-22
  • source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
  • caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
  • caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
  • caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
  • caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
  • caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
  • caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
  • caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
  • caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
  • caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
  • caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
  • caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
  • caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
  • caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
  • note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
  • note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
  • note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
  • note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
Offline research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Offline research closeout. Not live. This does not update live probabilities or forecasts and is not a trading signal.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

City-level summary

CityComplete datesAsk-rankableForecast exactResonance exactNotes
Austin847241 / 70 = 58.57%39 / 55 = 70.91%Available 84d, not full 100d
London1006928 / 67 = 41.79%25 / 55 = 45.45%—
NYC1006824 / 66 = 36.36%20 / 44 = 45.45%—
Paris1006630 / 66 = 45.45%27 / 56 = 48.21%—

Madrid appendix

  • Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
  • Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
  • Complete dates: 89
  • Ask-only rankable: 86
  • Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
  • Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
  • Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

  • Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
  • Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
  • Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
  • This is offline research only.
  • This does not update live probabilities or forecasts.
  • This is not a trading signal.