Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 1 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 7 | Generated at: 6月23日 22:18

Core tier-1

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
London / EGLCCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1936.8°C -> 37°C37°C37°CCsettlement-standard exact-number34.64%n=866BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 04:406月24日 04:456月23日 22:16
Madrid / LEMDCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1838.1°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number32.58%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 02:406月24日 02:456月23日 22:15
Austin / KAUSCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1793.56°F -> 94°F94°F94°FFstandardized range-bin26.66%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 08:406月24日 08:456月23日 22:16
Paris / LFPBCore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C -> 40°C40°C40°CCsettlement-standard exact-number37.59%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 01:406月24日 01:456月23日 22:15
NYC / KLGACore tier-12026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1984.02°F -> 84°F84°F84–85°FFstandardized range-bin27.07%n=979BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月23日 22:17

New watchlist

City / stationTierForecast dateExpected dateForecast versionForecast maxRounded market bucketPolymarket outcomeUnitHistorical hit typeHistorical hit rateHistorical sample nDisplay statusFreshnessMelbourne triggerVisible byLast updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILKNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C -> 38°C38°C38°CCsettlement-standard exact-number26.30%n=384AFTER_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月23日 22:106月23日 22:156月23日 22:18
Denver / KBKFNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1784.74°F -> 85°F85°F85°FFstandardized range-bin25.98%n=381BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月23日 22:16
Mexico City / MMMXNew watchlist2026-06-242026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1721.8°C -> 22°C22°C22°CCsettlement-standard exact-number33.07%n=381BEFORE_CUTOFFCURRENT_FORECAST_DATE6月24日 09:406月24日 09:456月23日 22:16

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / stationDateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeUpdatedStatus
Lucknow / VILK2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1738.3°C38°C38°C6月23日 22:18AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are reserved for future display states not covered by current ready or stale/reference rows.

Stale previous rows

Stale/reference rows are current latest forecast rows shown before their cutoff. Forecast date means the target date whose maximum temperature this row forecasts. They are not treated as current ready rows.

City / stationForecast dateVersionForecastRoundedOutcomeLast refreshedCutoffVisible byStatus
Austin / KAUS2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1793.56°F94°F94°F6月23日 22:166月24日 08:406月24日 08:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Denver / KBKF2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1784.74°F85°F85°F6月23日 22:166月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
London / EGLC2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1936.8°C37°C37°C6月23日 22:166月24日 04:406月24日 04:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Madrid / LEMD2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1838.1°C38°C38°C6月23日 22:156月24日 02:406月24日 02:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Mexico City / MMMX2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1721.8°C22°C22°C6月23日 22:166月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
NYC / KLGA2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1984.02°F84°F84–85°F6月23日 22:176月24日 09:406月24日 09:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Paris / LFPB2026-06-24MAX_THROUGH_1740.0°C40°C40°C6月23日 22:156月24日 01:406月24日 01:45BEFORE_CUTOFF
Offline research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Offline research closeout. Not live. This does not update live probabilities or forecasts and is not a trading signal.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

City-level summary

CityComplete datesAsk-rankableForecast exactResonance exactNotes
Austin847241 / 70 = 58.57%39 / 55 = 70.91%Available 84d, not full 100d
London1006928 / 67 = 41.79%25 / 55 = 45.45%
NYC1006824 / 66 = 36.36%20 / 44 = 45.45%
Paris1006630 / 66 = 45.45%27 / 56 = 48.21%

Madrid appendix

  • Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
  • Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
  • Complete dates: 89
  • Ask-only rankable: 86
  • Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
  • Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
  • Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

  • Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
  • Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
  • Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
  • This is offline research only.
  • This does not update live probabilities or forecasts.
  • This is not a trading signal.