Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 0 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 0 | Generated at: 6月27日 19:42

Core tier-1

Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.

City / station	Tier	Forecast date	Expected date	Forecast version	Forecast max	Rounded market bucket	Polymarket outcome	Unit	Historical hit type	Historical hit rate	Historical sample n	Display status	Freshness	Melbourne trigger	Visible by	Last updated Melbourne
Paris / LFPB	Core tier-1	2026-06-27	2026-06-28	MAX_THROUGH_17	36.2°C -> 36°C	36°C	36°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	37.59%	n=979	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	6月27日 01:40	6月27日 01:45	6月27日 01:54
NYC / KLGA	Core tier-1	2026-06-27	2026-06-28	MAX_THROUGH_19	81.68°F -> 82°F	82°F	82–83°F	F	standardized range-bin	27.07%	n=979	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	6月27日 09:40	6月27日 09:45	6月27日 09:40

New watchlist

New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.

City / station	Tier	Forecast date	Expected date	Forecast version	Forecast max	Rounded market bucket	Polymarket outcome	Unit	Historical hit type	Historical hit rate	Historical sample n	Display status	Freshness	Melbourne trigger	Visible by	Last updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILK	New watchlist	2026-06-27	2026-06-28	MAX_THROUGH_17	40.1°C -> 40°C	40°C	40°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	26.30%	n=384	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	6月26日 22:10	6月26日 22:15	6月26日 22:10
Denver / KBKF	New watchlist	2026-06-27	2026-06-28	MAX_THROUGH_17	93.38°F -> 93°F	93°F	93°F	F	standardized range-bin	25.98%	n=381	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	6月27日 09:40	6月27日 09:45	6月27日 09:40
Mexico City / MMMX	New watchlist	2026-06-27	2026-06-28	MAX_THROUGH_17	22.0°C -> 22°C	22°C	22°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	33.07%	n=381	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	STALE_FORECAST_DATE	6月27日 09:40	6月27日 09:45	6月27日 09:40

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

None.

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are reserved for future display states not covered by current ready or stale/reference rows.

None.

Stale previous rows

Stale/reference rows are current latest forecast rows shown before their cutoff. Forecast date means the target date whose maximum temperature this row forecasts. They are not treated as current ready rows.

None.

Metadata and caveats

generated_at_melbourne: 2026-06-27T19:42:03+10:00
forecast_date range: 2026-06-21 to 2026-06-28
source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. Polymarket outcome is the actual displayed market bin/range containing that whole-degree value.
caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.

Historical strategy research · display only

Latest audit-closed research status

Five-city integrity audits are now consolidated. The current reference is the official-fee audit-closed synthesis using the official Polymarket Weather fee model. These are historical descriptive observations only: not forecasts, not probabilities, not recommendations, and no frontend or operational action is implied.

Austin — corrected forecast=Top1

P1 · n=41 · official-fee historical net +3.815

Avg historical net / entry: +0.093
Status: restored positive, sample-limited
Caveat: finite-bin dependent; previous KILL was a label-join bug; needs future samples

Paris — market Top1 baseline

P1 · n=118 · official-fee historical net +4.557

Avg historical net / entry: +0.0386
Status: remains positive, not a forecast signal
Caveat: market-baseline anomaly; ask-band dependent; CI includes zero

Madrid — market Top1 baseline

P3 · n=78 · official-fee historical net +1.110

Avg historical net / entry: +0.0142
Status: weak positive, outlier-driven
Caveat: no Austin-like bug found; top-3 winner removal flips negative

NYC — forecast true-rank2

P4 · n=50 · official-fee historical net +0.395

Avg historical net / entry: +0.0079
Status: weak positive, source-limited
Caveat: D-1 parse incomplete; 9 unsupported dates; prior n=4 result superseded

London — excluded

n=244 market Top1 audit · official-fee historical net -11.734

Avg historical net / entry: -0.0481
Status: keep excluded
Caveat: old rank issue corrected; no active candidate restored

Top1 / Top2 use highest-ask outcomes — the market-implied most likely YES outcomes.

Retired / superseded: Austin tail-only retired, Austin KILL superseded, Paris forecast resonance retired, NYC n=4-only superseded, old handoff net-value table superseded, and 0.04/share as the primary fee model superseded / sensitivity only.

This section is historical descriptive display only and is not an active rule.

Archived historical appendix — Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance (superseded)

This appendix is retained for audit history only. It is superseded by the audit-closed research status above and should not be treated as the current strategy reference.

Archived research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Archived offline research closeout. This superseded appendix does not update probabilities or forecasts.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

Included cities: Austin, London, NYC, Paris
Excluded from primary pooled result: Madrid
Forecast-only exact: 123 / 269 = 45.72%
Resonance exact: 111 / 210 = 52.86%
Historical lift: +7.14 percentage points
Settlement in ask-only Top2: 206 / 269 = 76.58%
Resonance average forecast ask: 0.3841
Average decimal quote from ask: 2.7170

City-level summary

City	Complete dates	Ask-rankable	Forecast exact	Resonance exact	Notes
Austin	84	72	41 / 70 = 58.57%	39 / 55 = 70.91%	Available 84d, not full 100d
London	100	69	28 / 67 = 41.79%	25 / 55 = 45.45%	—
NYC	100	68	24 / 66 = 36.36%	20 / 44 = 45.45%	—
Paris	100	66	30 / 66 = 45.45%	27 / 56 = 48.21%	—

Madrid appendix

Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
Complete dates: 89
Ask-only rankable: 86
Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
This is archived offline research only.
This does not update probabilities or forecasts.
This is superseded by the audit-closed research status.