Station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief
Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.
Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.
Summary: Current ready: 2 | Waiting for cutoff: 0 | Stale previous rows: 6 | Generated at: 6月24日 01:48
Core tier-1
- Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
| City / station | Tier | Forecast date | Expected date | Forecast version | Forecast max | Rounded market bucket | Polymarket outcome | Unit | Historical hit type | Historical hit rate | Historical sample n | Display status | Freshness | Melbourne trigger | Visible by | Last updated Melbourne |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris / LFPB | Core tier-1 | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 40.0°C -> 40°C | 40°C | 40°C | C | settlement-standard exact-number | 37.59% | n=979 | AFTER_CUTOFF | CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE | 6月24日 01:40 | 6月24日 01:45 | 6月24日 01:45 |
| NYC / KLGA | Core tier-1 | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_19 | 84.02°F -> 84°F | 84°F | 84–85°F | F | standardized range-bin | 27.07% | n=979 | BEFORE_CUTOFF | CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | 6月24日 01:47 |
New watchlist
- New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
| City / station | Tier | Forecast date | Expected date | Forecast version | Forecast max | Rounded market bucket | Polymarket outcome | Unit | Historical hit type | Historical hit rate | Historical sample n | Display status | Freshness | Melbourne trigger | Visible by | Last updated Melbourne |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucknow / VILK | New watchlist | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 38.3°C -> 38°C | 38°C | 38°C | C | settlement-standard exact-number | 26.30% | n=384 | AFTER_CUTOFF | CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE | 6月23日 22:10 | 6月23日 22:15 | 6月24日 01:47 |
| Denver / KBKF | New watchlist | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 84.74°F -> 85°F | 85°F | 85°F | F | standardized range-bin | 25.98% | n=381 | BEFORE_CUTOFF | CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | 6月24日 01:46 |
| Mexico City / MMMX | New watchlist | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 21.8°C -> 22°C | 22°C | 22°C | C | settlement-standard exact-number | 33.07% | n=381 | BEFORE_CUTOFF | CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | 6月24日 01:46 |
Current ready rows
Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.
| City / station | Date | Version | Forecast | Rounded | Outcome | Updated | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucknow / VILK | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 38.3°C | 38°C | 38°C | 6月24日 01:47 | AFTER_CUTOFF |
| Paris / LFPB | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 40.0°C | 40°C | 40°C | 6月24日 01:45 | AFTER_CUTOFF |
Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows
Waiting rows are reserved for future display states not covered by current ready or stale/reference rows.
- None.
Stale previous rows
Stale/reference rows are current latest forecast rows shown before their cutoff. Forecast date means the target date whose maximum temperature this row forecasts. They are not treated as current ready rows.
| City / station | Forecast date | Version | Forecast | Rounded | Outcome | Last refreshed | Cutoff | Visible by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin / KAUS | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 93.56°F | 94°F | 94°F | 6月24日 01:46 | 6月24日 08:40 | 6月24日 08:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
| Denver / KBKF | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 84.74°F | 85°F | 85°F | 6月24日 01:46 | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
| London / EGLC | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_19 | 36.8°C | 37°C | 37°C | 6月24日 01:46 | 6月24日 04:40 | 6月24日 04:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
| Madrid / LEMD | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_18 | 38.1°C | 38°C | 38°C | 6月24日 01:45 | 6月24日 02:40 | 6月24日 02:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
| Mexico City / MMMX | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_17 | 21.8°C | 22°C | 22°C | 6月24日 01:46 | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
| NYC / KLGA | 2026-06-24 | MAX_THROUGH_19 | 84.02°F | 84°F | 84–85°F | 6月24日 01:47 | 6月24日 09:40 | 6月24日 09:45 | BEFORE_CUTOFF |
Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance
Offline research closeout. Not live. This does not update live probabilities or forecasts and is not a trading signal.
Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)
- Included cities: Austin, London, NYC, Paris
- Excluded from primary pooled result: Madrid
- Forecast-only exact: 123 / 269 = 45.72%
- Resonance exact: 111 / 210 = 52.86%
- Lift: +7.14 percentage points
- Settlement in ask-only Top2: 206 / 269 = 76.58%
- Resonance average forecast ask: 0.3841
- Average decimal odds from ask: 2.7170
City-level summary
| City | Complete dates | Ask-rankable | Forecast exact | Resonance exact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 84 | 72 | 41 / 70 = 58.57% | 39 / 55 = 70.91% | Available 84d, not full 100d |
| London | 100 | 69 | 28 / 67 = 41.79% | 25 / 55 = 45.45% | — |
| NYC | 100 | 68 | 24 / 66 = 36.36% | 20 / 44 = 45.45% | — |
| Paris | 100 | 66 | 30 / 66 = 45.45% | 27 / 56 = 48.21% | — |
Madrid appendix
- Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
- Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
- Complete dates: 89
- Ask-only rankable: 86
- Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
- Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
- Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%
Definitions and caveats
- Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
- Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
- Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
- This is offline research only.
- This does not update live probabilities or forecasts.
- This is not a trading signal.
Latest research conclusion: Paris & New York
The latest D-1 Telonex reconstruction fixed the same-day partition problem and expanded the historical sample. New York reached 245 rankable historical days; Paris reached 117 rankable historical days and remains source-limited.
Paris — Top1 (strongest signal in this study)
Hit rate 62.86% · n=35 · EV ≈ +0.1060 per 1-share contract
- wins 22 / losses 13
- avg win ask 0.5563 · avg loss ask 0.4654
- EV ≈ +0.2551 per $1 staked
Paris — forecast within market top two
Hit rate 48.21% · n=56 · EV ≈ +0.0340 per 1-share contract
- wins 27 / losses 29
- avg win ask 0.5151 · avg loss ask 0.3858
- EV ≈ +0.0544 per $1 staked
New York — forecast within market top two
Hit rate 41.67% · n=48 · EV ≈ +0.0541 per 1-share contract
- wins 20 / losses 28
- avg win ask 0.4465 · avg loss ask 0.3027
- EV ≈ +0.0610 per $1 staked
New York — Top1 (not attractive in this sample)
Hit rate 43.48% · n=23 · EV ≈ -0.0273 per 1-share contract
- wins 10 / losses 13
- avg win ask 0.5729 · avg loss ask 0.3768
- EV ≈ -0.1629 per $1 staked
“Forecast within market top two” means the forecast outcome was among the market’s two cheapest (most likely) ask prices — not strictly second place.
These are historical descriptive sample results only. They are not forward-looking predictions and should not be treated as trading advice.