Open-Meteo Next-Day Forecast Brief

Priority cities only. Forecast update only; no odds/trading advice.

Summary: Current ready: 3 | Waiting for cutoff: 5 | Stale previous rows: 0 | Generated at: 7月7日 04:46

Core tier-1

Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.

City / station	Tier	Forecast date	Expected date	Forecast version	Forecast max	Rounded market bucket	Polymarket outcome	Unit	Historical hit type	Historical hit rate	Historical sample n	Display status	Freshness	Melbourne trigger	Visible by	Last updated Melbourne
Paris / LFPB	Core tier-1	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	34.7°C -> 35°C	35°C	35°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	37.59%	n=979	AFTER_CUTOFF	CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE	7月7日 01:40	7月7日 01:45	7月7日 04:45
NYC / KLGA	Core tier-1	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_19	74.12°F -> 74°F	74°F	74-75F	F	standardized range-bin	27.07%	n=979	BEFORE_CUTOFF	CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE	7月7日 09:40	7月7日 09:45	7月7日 04:45

New watchlist

New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.

City / station	Tier	Forecast date	Expected date	Forecast version	Forecast max	Rounded market bucket	Polymarket outcome	Unit	Historical hit type	Historical hit rate	Historical sample n	Display status	Freshness	Melbourne trigger	Visible by	Last updated Melbourne
Lucknow / VILK	New watchlist	2026-07-08	2026-07-08	MAX_THROUGH_17	31.7°C -> 32°C	32°C	32°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	26.30%	n=384	BEFORE_CUTOFF	CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE	7月7日 22:10	7月7日 22:15	7月7日 04:46
Denver / KBKF	New watchlist	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	95.18°F -> 95°F	95°F	94-95F	F	standardized range-bin	25.98%	n=381	BEFORE_CUTOFF	CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE	7月7日 09:40	7月7日 09:45	7月7日 04:45
Mexico City / MMMX	New watchlist	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	23.6°C -> 24°C	24°C	24°C	C	settlement-standard exact-number	33.07%	n=381	BEFORE_CUTOFF	CURRENT_FORECAST_DATE	7月7日 09:40	7月7日 09:45	7月7日 04:45

Current ready rows

Ready rows are current forecast_date rows whose cutoff has passed.

City / station	Date	Version	Forecast	Rounded	Outcome	Updated	Status
London / EGLC	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_19	31.0°C	31°C	31°C	7月7日 04:45	AFTER_CUTOFF
Madrid / LEMD	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_18	38.0°C	38°C	38°C	7月7日 04:45	AFTER_CUTOFF
Paris / LFPB	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	34.7°C	35°C	35°C	7月7日 04:45	AFTER_CUTOFF

Waiting for cutoff / upcoming rows

Waiting rows are current forecast_date rows before their cutoff.

City / station	Forecast date	Version	Forecast	Rounded	Outcome	Updated	Visible by	Status
Austin / KAUS	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	96.98°F	97°F	96-97F	7月7日 04:45	7月7日 08:45	BEFORE_CUTOFF
Denver / KBKF	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	95.18°F	95°F	94-95F	7月7日 04:45	7月7日 09:45	BEFORE_CUTOFF
Lucknow / VILK	2026-07-08	MAX_THROUGH_17	31.7°C	32°C	32°C	7月7日 04:46	7月7日 22:15	BEFORE_CUTOFF
Mexico City / MMMX	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_17	23.6°C	24°C	24°C	7月7日 04:45	7月7日 09:45	BEFORE_CUTOFF
NYC / KLGA	2026-07-07	MAX_THROUGH_19	74.12°F	74°F	74-75F	7月7日 04:45	7月7日 09:45	BEFORE_CUTOFF

Stale previous rows

Stale rows are previous forecast_date rows kept visible for reference until the next refresh. They are not hidden, but they are not treated as current.

None.

Metadata and caveats

generated_at_melbourne: 2026-07-07T04:46:11+10:00
forecast_date range: 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-08
source: station-aligned Open-Meteo previous_day1
caveat: forecast update only, no odds/trading advice
caveat: cutoff_status is based on configured Melbourne trigger time
caveat: Rows marked STALE_FORECAST_DATE are for an older forecast_date than the current expected station-local target date. They are shown for audit visibility and should not be treated as current forecasts.
caveat: Rounded market bucket is the model forecast aligned to the market's whole-degree precision. In default deterministic mode, Polymarket outcome is mapped from static configured bins where available, uses the standardized even-lower/odd-upper 2°F bucket for the US range-bin cities, and otherwise shows the whole-degree fallback label; it is not read from local market-structure artifacts and may differ from the actual displayed Polymarket bin/range. Enable local research enrichment to map against locally captured market outcome labels.
caveat: Historical hit rate is research-only: exact-number matching for London/Madrid/Paris and standardized 2°F bucket simulation for Austin/NYC. Not a probability, odds, or trading signal.
caveat: Historical hit rate is sourced from the displayed-city settlement-standard research summary when available and shown as one long-sample backtest reference per city.
caveat: NYC / KLGA uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
caveat: The prior NYC 57.53% bucket metric was tail-only and is no longer used for current range-bin display.
caveat: London / EGLC displays settlement-standard exact-number research and remains the strongest clean/near-complete exact-number city in the current long-sample summary.
caveat: London MAX_THROUGH_19 range-bin recompute files are retained only as historical diagnostic artifacts and are not used for the active London frontend metrics.
caveat: Austin / KAUS uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; open-ended market tails are ignored.
caveat: Denver / KBKF uses standardized settlement-standard even-lower/odd-upper 2°F range-bin research for the displayed Historical hit rate; missing observed dates remain 2025-08-30, 2025-08-31, and 2025-09-01.
caveat: Paris / LFPB frontend display uses Paris-Le Bourget / LFPB as the current-market settlement standard for the Historical hit rate. Older LFPG evidence is retained only as a historical/source-drift diagnostic; no station mapping or forecast definition changes are made.
caveat: Mexico City / MMMX is mixed-provenance near-complete settlement-standard exact-number research; the unresolved 2026-06-19 Open-Meteo source mismatch was preserved and not overwritten.
caveat: Madrid / LEMD uses an early forecast cutoff (MAX_THROUGH_18): the displayed Historical hit rate is computed from the station-local 00–18 forecast window. The settlement target remains the full-day observed maximum; this early cutoff was selected because the cutoff feasibility audit found minimal historical accuracy loss versus FULL_DAY_MAX. The Polymarket market does not settle at 18:00.
note: This brief displays core tier-1 cities and new watchlist cities. Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.
note: Core tier-1 cities are established live forecast monitors.
note: New watchlist cities are promoted from the new-city discovery audit and should be monitored separately before being treated as core.
note: Backend CSV/JSON outputs continue to refresh all configured live cities.

Historical research only · display-only

Research status — US ICON Top1/Top2 resonance frozen, Austin forward candidate only

As of 2026-07-05, historical US ICON Top1/Top2 resonance research is closed/frozen. This display is research-only: not a probability update, not forecast logic, not active, and not market-action advice.

Frozen meta-decision

US_ICON_HISTORICAL_RESONANCE_RESEARCH_CLOSED_EXCEPT_AUSTIN_FORWARD_V1

Historical NYC, Denver, and Austin strict or dominated-tail variants are research diagnostics only.
They are not active inputs, not probabilities, and not forecast-source logic.
All historical US ICON Top1/Top2 resonance variants are closed except the Austin forward-tracking hypothesis below.

Austin retained path

AUSTIN_NON_HIGH_SPREAD_DOMINATED_TAIL_RESONANCE_FORWARD_V1

Forward-tracking only; retention means registration for future testing, not endorsement.
Historical Austin conditional-net result remains exploratory.
Caveats: SMALL_SAMPLE_ONLY / LOW_COVERAGE_DIAGNOSTIC_ONLY / DOMINATED_TAIL_DIAGNOSTIC_ONLY / day-grade spread provenance.

Predictor roles

ICON primary; Open-Meteo shadow comparator only

ICON is the locked primary predictor for the Austin forward protocol.
Open-Meteo is shadow comparator only and does not count toward primary gates.
No forecast source replacement is implied.

Evidence gate

Future live rows after protocol lock only

Evidence requires future live rows after protocol lock.
Review gates: n>=30 / n>=60 / n>=100 Wilson lower-bound checks.
No frontend/live/active probability change.

Top1 / Top2 labels in this section refer to highest-ask outcome ranking in historical samples.

Retired / superseded: Austin corrected Top1, Austin tail-only, Austin KILL, Paris forecast resonance, NYC n=4-only, the old handoff net-value table, and 0.04/share as the primary fee model.

This section is historical research only, display-only, and not active. No frontend/live/active probability change. No trading advice.

Manual forward tracking · research notes · display-only

Austin model spread note (research-only)

Observation-only research note: this shows the range across three weather models, ECMWF, GFS, and ICON, for Austin day-grade forecast annotation. It is not a probability, not part of the displayed forecast logic, and not market-action advice.

Day-grade only · Checkpoint-timed use: no · Threshold version: AUSTIN_3MODEL_F_V1_20260704

Date	City	Austin model spread note	Model range	Entry mode	Provenance
2026-06-22	Austin	MEDIUM · 2.34°F range	2.34°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-23	Austin	MEDIUM · 2.88°F range	2.88°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-24	Austin	HIGH · 3.78°F range	3.78°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-28	Austin	HIGH · 3.78°F range	3.78°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-28	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-06-29	Austin	HIGH · 5.04°F range	5.04°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-29	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-06-30	Austin	LOW · 1.08°F range	1.08°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-06-30	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-07-01	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-07-02	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-07-03	Austin	LOW · 1.26°F range	1.26°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-07-03	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—
2026-07-04	Austin	LOW · 0.72°F range	0.72°F	Retroactive backfill	Day-grade (no checkpoint timing)
2026-07-04	Paris	N/A — Austin only	—	—	—

Entry mode marks when the note was recorded. Retroactive backfill values are day-grade archive values and are labelled so they are not mistaken for entries recorded at original row-entry time.

This section is observation-only, display-only, and separate from live forecast cards, historical hit rates, and all production forecast logic.

Archived historical appendix — Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance (superseded)

This appendix is retained for audit history only. It is superseded by the audit-closed research status above and should not be treated as the current strategy reference.

Archived research · display only

Offline Research Appendix: Telonex Ask-only Top2 Resonance

Archived offline research closeout. This superseded appendix does not update probabilities or forecasts.

Primary pooled result (non-Madrid)

Included cities: Austin, London, NYC, Paris
Excluded from primary pooled result: Madrid
Forecast-only exact: 123 / 269 = 45.72%
Resonance exact: 111 / 210 = 52.86%
Historical lift: +7.14 percentage points
Settlement in ask-only Top2: 206 / 269 = 76.58%
Resonance average forecast ask: 0.3841
Average decimal quote from ask: 2.7170

City-level summary

City	Complete dates	Ask-rankable	Forecast exact	Resonance exact	Notes
Austin	84	72	41 / 70 = 58.57%	39 / 55 = 70.91%	Available 84d, not full 100d
London	100	69	28 / 67 = 41.79%	25 / 55 = 45.45%	—
NYC	100	68	24 / 66 = 36.36%	20 / 44 = 45.45%	—
Paris	100	66	30 / 66 = 45.45%	27 / 56 = 48.21%	—

Madrid appendix

Madrid is not part of the primary pooled result.
Standalone rescued sample, not 100d.
Complete dates: 89
Ask-only rankable: 86
Forecast exact: 31 / 86 = 36.05%
Resonance exact: 31 / 77 = 40.26%
Settlement in ask-only Top2: 69 / 86 = 80.23%

Definitions and caveats

Resonance means the forecast outcome is inside the ask-only full-market Top2 before checkpoint.
Ask-only Top2 is a research proxy.
Midpoint is diagnostic only because all-outcome midpoint coverage is sparse.
This is archived offline research only.
This does not update probabilities or forecasts.
This is superseded by the audit-closed research status.